Let me tell you a true story:

Late 1998, early 1999, I was talking to a friend about free email providers. He asked the question: "How come they can provide a service for free?".

And my answer was: "They can't. They are going to crash and burn". About 12 months later, the 1st Internet boom ended.

I see every sign we are due to repeat this crash and burn within 6 to 18 months, maybe earlier.

Companies to watch are Uber, Netflix, Meta (née Facebook). All of these are sitting on piles of debt.

I see Alphabet (née Google) and Apple getting out more or less OK, esp. since Apple is sitting on billions in cash.

Amazon will be very interesting to watch, since they have nothing but debt as well, but a somewhat solid business model. Will investors tire of financing Jeff B. trip to (near) space in his flying penis? That remains to be seen.

All of these (and the vast majority of stupid VC-financed "unicorns") can go to heck in a handbasket, as far as I am concerned.

You heard it first.

The kicker is, of course, that this will plunge the world in a deep recession.

Billions of US$ are going to be vaporized. Divest wisely.

I see Microsoft really suffering, since cheap Linux-based chromebook are going to eat the low end Windows market while the Mac will eat the high end. As far as I am concerned, they are slowly becoming legacy. The coming crash will precipitate that.

Finally, I also remember reading the Wired magazine on the "New Economy" (remember that one?) and thinking that was either a complete pile of manure or proof of my stupidity.

Because what they were talking about made absolutely no economic sense to me. And it never made sense.

I also remember reading about Linux for the first time a bit later. I was skeptical at first (a free UNIX-like OS? Really?), but I was soon convinced, to the point of downloading 35+ floppy disks to install on my laptop.

Follow

Remember this: open source software is fundamentally resistant to the B.S. of all those start-ups out there.

Support open source.

I can honestly say it has changed my life for the better. And it may well be the last affordable computing option in a world deep in recession.

End of story.

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@ParadeGrotesque I can see Microsoft (or at least their employees) suffering but not disappearing - MS365 is deeply embedded in both public and private sector orgs worldwide. Amazon still has the retail division. What I do think can happen is the bottom falls out of Alphabet/adtech etc as the recession bites, and "fun/frivolour" uses of tech become less affordable whilst commercial business uses endure (although repurposing older ex-business hardware with FOSS will ofc still endure)

@vfrmedia

True, but there is a bunch of companies that will NEVER EVER go on O365.

When these companies or public sector realize they can get the same services with open source instead of paying the Microsoft Tax... There will be blood.

Amazon has been losing money on their retail sector from day one. It's part of their strategy. The only part of Amazon that makes money, as far as I know, is AWS. And a lot of people will NEVER EVER go AWS, etc.

@RyunoKi @ParadeGrotesque I've worked in Britain's public sector myself; they do use FOSS and Linux as well; but its also used as a bargaining chip to negotiate down Microsoft prices (such as with the NHS) sometimes FOSS wins, sometimes Redmond (in general UK govt websites mostly run on FOSS systems whereas the office PCs are on Windows). For "ordinary folk" a collapse of adtech in a recession could have a wider impact (even if psychological) >>

@RyunoKi @ParadeGrotesque even the Fediverse operates from the "crumbs of the table" of the big corporates; cheap hosting (fed by e-commerce and adtech?), talented young coders who have spare time away from their day jobs to keep Mastodon and others maintained - many Fedi instances are also quite resource intensive. Will all this endure during a long term economic recession? (I think the text based bits can, but pictures/media take up a lot of resources)

@vfrmedia @RyunoKi

Hence, my appeal to support open source (and related non-profit organizations, of course).

@vfrmedia @RyunoKi

And by the way, I am perfectly fine with governments and corporations using open source as a bargaining chip against Microsoft.

I do not know ANY startup right now that uses Microsoft as a starting point for their infrastructure.

I am willing to bet a lot of large, established, companies will soon look at the potential savings of open source vs M$. Especially in a recession.

@ParadeGrotesque @RyunoKi

in England MS365 is often reluctantly adopted by medium size businesses as its cheaper and more versatile than on premises Windows Server boxes and tech skills of sysadmins have been lost over 20 years due to companies not hiring and training in the "good times" (most of these businesses don't even hire on site IT staff and outsource everything). Nextcloud could take some of this but needs to reach feature parity and have same level of support..

@ParadeGrotesque @RyunoKi

as an example; although you could get a managed Nextcloud instance from IONOS DE in 2018, its only *very* recently IONOS UK have offered this and they don't seem to be bothering to market it much (despite constantly trying to call me on the phone to upsell something else for a domain I bought) - its also unclear about the support levels/SLAs.

In 2016 I had to deploy an MS365 tenant for my current work; we tried FOSS alternatives but they didn't have the usability..

@vfrmedia

Very good points, unfortunately... Business just wants stuff that works, and that's perfectly understandable.

@ParadeGrotesque @RyunoKi

@kravietz

LOL. It usually "only works" because Windows comes pre-installed with pretty much every PC under the sun.

As soon as your org is hacked because you used Windows, you will discover - the hard way - what also "just works" under Windows: exploits. And viruses.

@RyunoKi @vfrmedia

@ParadeGrotesque

I have zero Windows instances across my infrastructure, and I migrated all my data to self-hosted Nextcloud years ago. Unfortunately, I also work in infosec and I do realise that any unmaintained infrastructure does fail or gets hacked very soon. What I understand in what @vfrmedia says is that he wanted to find specifically someone to commercially maintain a NextCloud instance, and it didn't work. That means that no regular (non-IT) business will go for it, and that would be a rational decision sadly.


@RyunoKi

@kravietz @RyunoKi @ParadeGrotesque at work we use both Windows and Linux (depending on enduser skills/preferences and business requirements), but IT isn't the core part of the business and I am the sole full time IT staff member. At the time (2016) we needed "groupware", one FOSS app was partly in German (menus as well! and had 90s era UI); Owncloud/Nextcloud devs were arguing amongst themselves, and MS reliably delivered about 70% of requirements (today its 85% with Nextcloud maybe at 80%)

@kravietz @RyunoKi @ParadeGrotesque

This does mean Nextcloud is closing the gap and becoming more feasible for SME usage; but at the same time I notice my German mutuals with selfhosted setups cursing it when they have to update things (and I trust them more than IONOS!) Also when MS365 does something cursed to the point it becomes fully unusable, you can actually speak to a real human (even in middle of the night UK time) and they usually manage to fix enough of it to get you working again..

@vfrmedia

Yes, the NextCloud updater was a bit of a pain in the past, especially that you also have to deal with Linux updates *and* PHP updates which can break things as #NextCloud has rather narrow tolerance for PHP versions. I can't see normal people self-hosting it as it would end up in either breaking it or not upgrading it at all, and I don't know which is worse, so tech support is critical here.

@RyunoKi @ParadeGrotesque

@ParadeGrotesque Though a lot of big open source projects rely on corporate backing, so recessions could affect these. (Plus, open source that it done by individuals in their spare time presumably would be affected by those individuals potentially having less spare time to spend.)

@emacsomancer

Hence my plea to support open source. Especially small(er) projects.

@ParadeGrotesque I'm not worried about google or apple getting harmed by their "free" stuff because their "free" is just a way to get folks to pay OR provide info to be sold (ignoring moral questions)

It's the "free" without a viable business plan, companies that are a concern from a reliability standpoint.

@ParadeGrotesque re an earlier comment you made about hosting your own code repos.

I agree with the sentiment but I'm concerned by the history of blogs. People got bored, and stopped bothering to keep their site up. If that happens again with repos (seems probable) then we'd loose access to so many useful tools / libs that we didn't know we needed before they went away.

@masukomi

Take a look at the Gitea saga for a counterpoint.

Essentially @gitea has been held hostage by github. And they are preventing Gitea from migrating away from Github.

So the choice is: host your code on Github, and put yourself at risk, or self-host your code on your own server, using only [insert your favourite service here] for backup and visibility.

If you get bored, people can fork your code from the service in question.

(@aral has been posting about this as well)

@ParadeGrotesque @gitea @aral got a link about the gitea saga? I've wondered why they still had their source on GH.

I'm not really understanding how someone couldn't just leave GH at any time (maybe complications re transitioning outstanding PRs & issues but...)

@ParadeGrotesque While certainly frustrating, that feels like a long known, technical limitation of the platform rather than hostile action.

Also, if they switched to the GraphQL API instead of the REST api the number of requests required would likely be RADICALLY decreased. I've been doing a lot of work with their api lately. the REST api is stupid.

analogy: It's like complaining that you can't download faster than your ISP has available bandwidth for you, like... duh.

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